Trump Tariff Threat and China Downturn to Make CNY 2025 ‘Different’

The impact of Chinese New Year (CNY) on global supply chains “cannot be overstated”, according to Maersk, amid a warning that the forthcoming 29 January to 3 February holiday would be different from previous years, due to two volatile factors.

During CNY, factories across Asia shut down, “creating bottlenecks and delays in supply chain”, Maersk warned customers today.

“Companies experience a rush to complete orders before the holiday, and a backlog of orders once operations resume”, the Danish carrier explained.

For western retail importers, this is also the window for shipping goods to arrive in time for the Easter and spring sales seasons, creating a subsequent “rush to get shipments on the water”, said Global Shippers’ Forum director James Hookham, adding: “Especially as they will be on diversion round the Cape of Good Hope for a second year.”

But he warned: “There will be two massive additional factors at play in 2025 that make this CNY different to all other years”.

He explained: “If Donald Trump becomes the next US President, he will be inaugurated at about the same time as CNY. If, as he promises, he then imposes huge tariffs on Chinese imports, then these could be taking effect just about the time the holiday period ends.”

He said “massive advance ordering” by US shippers to “beat Trump tariffs and get as much inventory out of China as possible before the start of the CNY holiday”, would be expected in the event of a Trump victory.

“December and January could get busy, with more peak season surcharges than the whole of 2024 combined – and that’s going some.”

The second factor to influence CNY would be China itself, he said.

“The Chinese economy is not in great shape, relative to what it is used to, with suppressed demand for goods from consumers and the government hesitating over stimulus measures.

“So, the capacity to meet a sudden peak in demand over the next 10-week period may be limited, as many factories are closing down or laying-off staff,” Mr Hookham said.

To mitigate supply chain impacts, Maersk advised shippers to be aware of the CNY timeline, increase stock levels and apply effective inventory management, anticipate and plan for shipping delays and diversify their supplier base.

“This period also presents an opportunity for businesses to evaluate and strengthen their supply chain strategies… by proactively addressing these challenges, companies can not only navigate the complexities of CNY but also build a more robust and adaptable supply chain for the future,” Maersk added.

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